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S&P, Moody’s caution on U.S. debt
Agencies cite deteriorating fiscal situation in the country

LONDON (MarketWatch) - Jan. 13, 2011 - By Mark Brown and Nathalie Boschat

Two leading credit rating agencies Thursday warned the U.S. on its credit rating, expressing concern over a deteriorating fiscal situation that needs correcting.

Moody’s Investors Service Inc. said in a report Thursday that the U.S. will need to reverse an upward trajectory in its debt ratios to support its Aaa rating.

“We have become increasingly clear about the fact that if there are not offsetting measures to reverse the deterioration in negative fundamentals in the U.S., the likelihood of a negative outlook over the next two years will increase,” Sarah Carlson, senior analyst at Moody’s, told Dow Jones Newswires.

Standard & Poor’s Corp. Thursday also didn’t rule out changing the outlook for its U.S. sovereign debt rating because of the recent deterioration of the country’s fiscal situation.

The U.S. currently has a triple A rating with a stable outlook at both agencies.

“The view of markets is that the U.S. will continue to benefit from the exorbitant privilege linked to the U.S. dollar” to fund its deficits, Carol Sirou, head of S&P France, said at a Paris conference Thursday.

“But that may change. We can’t rule out changing the outlook” on the U.S. sovereign debt rating in the future, she warned.

She added the jobless nature of the U.S. recovery was one of the biggest threats to the U.S. economy. “No triple-A rating is forever,” she said.

Moody’s said the U.S., Germany, France and the U.K. still have debt metrics, including debt affordability--the ratio of interest payments to revenue--compatible with their Aaa ratings at the agency.

But all four countries must bring the future costs arising from pension and healthcare subsidies under control if they “are to maintain long-term stability in their debt burden credit metrics,” Moody’s said in its regular Aaa Sovereign Monitor report.

Moody’s noted that measures were recommended by the U.S. National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, appointed by President Obama, to achieve a balanced primary budget by 2015, but that there was insufficient support to trigger consideration of those recommendations by the full Congress.

They included a wide variety of measures, including Social Security reform, cutbacks in the growth of Medicare outlays, elimination or modification of the mortgage interest tax deduction, a gasoline tax and other measures, Moody’s said.

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