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Global Bond Growth Slows to Pre-Crisis Levels: Credit Markets

Bloomberg - Jan. 20, 2011 - by Sapna Maheshwari

The global bond market’s expansion is slowing for the first time since 2005 as governments withdraw stimulus and credit conditions improve.

The bond market grew 9.9 percent last year to $49.7 trillion, down from an 18.5 percent rise in 2009 when governments provided debt guarantees during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The 10-year cumulative annual growth rate is 9.8 percent.

Slower growth may boost demand for borrowers from the U.S. government to junk-rated companies. Relative yields on corporate debt match the lowest since May and average prices have climbed 21 percent from the record low in October 2008. Bonds returned 4.9 percent last year and 5.3 percent in 2009, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Index.

“Less supply boosts prices and narrows yield spreads,” said Anthony Valeri, market strategist with LPL Financial Corp. in San Diego, which oversees $293 billion. “All of that is positive for bond investors.”

The last time growth decelerated was in 2005, when it expanded 6.8 percent from 8 percent the prior year, Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Phil Galdi wrote in a report dated Jan. 12. This slowdown was greatest in quasi- and foreign government bonds, including corporate debt issued under liquidity guarantee programs. Emerging-market debt was the only category that grew at a faster pace.

Growth in quasi- and foreign government bonds outstanding fell to 4.4 percent last year from 20.7 percent in 2009, according to the report. Emerging-market debt expanded by 17.5 percent, following a 12.5 percent increase in 2009.

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The extra yield investors demand to own company bonds worldwide instead of similar maturity government debt was unchanged at 164 basis points, or 1.64 percentage points, matching the lowest since May 5 when the level was 158 basis points, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Corporate Index. Yields averaged 3.923 percent.

Elsewhere in credit markets, the European Commission said it’s considering changes to the way covered bonds are treated under the Basel III regulations aimed at preventing a repeat of the financial crisis.

Covered bonds may face less strict capital and liquidity rules than called for by global regulators as the EU seeks to limit side-effects that may hamper the economic recovery, according to , said Chantal Hughes, a spokeswoman for Financial Services Commissioner Michel Barnier.

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