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ANALYSIS-Investors seen rushing to emerging corporate debt

REUTERS News - Jan. 28, 2011

EMERGING-CORPORATE/DEBT (ANALYSIS)
* Emerging corporate debt issuance $30 bln this year

* Russian, Ukrainian corporates, Turkish banks among issuers

* Default risk low, yields similar to euro zone outliers

By Carolyn Cohn

LONDON, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Investors snapped up emerging corporate debt in January, capitalising on a yield advantage over unfashionable sovereigns while retaining faith in the long-term emerging market story even as local equity prices cool.

Corporate bond sales from developing economies have outstripped emerging market sovereign supply, with $30 billion issued so far this year -- nearly a fifth of the total emerging corporate issuance last year.

Potential issuers are queuing up to talk to London-based investors -- nine were roadshowing on a single day last week.

Bonds have been launched already by, among others, Turkey's Isbank and Russian mobile company Vimpelcom, while upcoming borrowers include Ukrainian steel producer Metinvest.

The familiar tale of a growing middle class in emerging markets firing up demand for consumer goods and financial services is taking investors directly to corporate issuance.

Unlike emerging equities, which some investors are now starting to see as expensive, corporate debt is still viewed as offering attractive yields.

Default risk also appears to be diminishing, helped by the global recovery, even as this recovery is making investors fret about falling U.S. Treasury bond prices.

The corporate debt trend is likely to continue, with JPMorgan forecasting more than $160 billion in emerging corporate debt issuance in 2011, similar to last year's already record volumes.

"Emerging corporate debt is offering a yield of around 7 percent for a BBB average rating -- it's the best return you can see in the fixed-income space," Polina Kurdyavko, fund manager at BlueBay Asset Management, told investors this week.

A wobbly year-end for markets last year and a slow start this year has meant emerging market issuance overall is down, after a record 2010 in which around $300 billion was issued in international emerging market debt, according to bank estimates.

But investors are growing more confident in their risk assessment of corporate bonds.

Default risk has traditionally been synonymous with emerging corporate debt. During the global financial crisis, many corporates defaulted, though more in local markets than in international debt markets, which tend to have more stringent legal covenants.

For the complete article.
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