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Longest Bond Slump Since 2008 Marks Recovery as Junk Surges

Bloomberg - Feb. 28, 2011 - By John Detrixhe and Daniel Kruger

Bond market investors are showing the greatest confidence in global economic growth since credit markets crashed three years ago.

Yields on debt securities are rising for a fourth month as prices fall, the longest stretch since June 2008, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Index, which tracks the performance of more than 19,000 securities valued at about $39 trillion. While the highest-rated debt, from U.S. Treasuries to Microsoft Corp. debentures, are falling, the riskiest company notes are returning the most in eight years.

“We’ve just experienced the first several months of a bear market in bonds,” said Michael Hyman, head of investment-grade credit in Atlanta at ING Investment Management, which oversees about $518 billion.

While bonds rallied last week as turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa spread, debt prices have fallen 3.54 percent since August as the MSCI World Index of stocks surged 24 percent. Consumer confidence in the U.S. climbed during the week ended Feb. 20 to the highest level since April 2008.

Manufacturing is expanding worldwide. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index for the U.S. rose to 60.8 in January, the highest level since May 2004. China said last month that industrial production rose 13.5 percent in 2010, while growth in Europe’s service and manufacturing industries accelerated to the fastest pace in more than four years this month, led by stronger output in Germany.

Rising Rates

Market interest rates are the highest in more than a year, rising to 3 percent from last year’s low of 2.14 percent on Aug. 31, the Broad Market Index shows. Sovereign debt, considered the least at risk of default, has performed the worst, losing 2.99 percent after reinvested interest since August. U.S. Treasuries are down 2.88 percent.

Bonds issued in September by Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft at some of the lowest borrowing costs on record have tumbled, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The yield on the largest software maker’s $1 billion of 3 percent debt due October 2020 rose to 3.88 percent last week from about 3 percent when they were issued.

The bond market exception has been high-yield debt. Junk bonds, rated below Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service and less than BBB- by Standard & Poor’s, have returned 3.48 percent this year, the best start since gaining 3.89 percent at the same point in 2003, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. U.S. junk yield fell to a record low 7.29 percent on Feb. 22.

‘Favorable Outlook’

Investors see less risk of defaults because the global economy is forecast to expand 4.22 percent this year and 4.54 percent in 2012, according to International Monetary Fund data, after shrinking 0.58 percent in 2009.

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