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Muni Bond Outflows Dwindle to $610 Million As Investors Adjust to Headline Risk

onwallstreet - Feb. 28, 2011 - By Dan Seymour, Bond Buyer

The pressure on municipal bond mutual funds is fading rapidly as a much less panicked tone in the state and local government debt market has stemmed the exodus of cash from the industry.

Municipal funds that report their figures weekly posted a net outflow of $610 million during the week ended Feb. 23, according to Lipper FMI.

This marks a further slowdown from the previous week's $973.9 million outflow, and the fifth straight week of evidence that conditions have eased since the historic $4 billion hemorrhage during the week ended Jan. 19.

Last week's was the lightest outflow since Dec. 8, and the four-week moving average of fund outflows is the lowest since mid-December.

"I'm still experiencing outflows, but they're not as dramatic as they were," said Dick Berry, who manages two tax-free funds with $1.9 billion in assets for Invesco. "People have adjusted to the headline risk they've been reading about. It got overdone for a while and created a selling panic and that's played out by now."

Fund outflows and the performance of municipal debt in the bond market became entangled the past few months in a way that can make it difficult to determine what leads what.

A drastic municipal sell-off that began in November coincided with the beginnings of a record outflux of cash from municipal funds.

Muni bonds delivered a return of negative 5.7% from Nov. 10 to Jan. 19, during which time municipal funds reported redemptions of $29 billion.

Mutual funds and the bond market fell into a negative feedback loop: funds sold bonds to raise cash for investors, forcing more market losses and scaring investors, who redeemed more mutual fund shares.

The municipal bond market began to recover in mid-January, just as outflows were peaking.

In a note to clients, JPMorgan analyst Chris Holmes said the greater stability in the bond market has comforted investors, leading to a slower pace of outflows.

For the complete article.
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