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Where the risk is (and isn't) in muni bonds

CNNMoney.com - March 3, 2011 - By Annalyn Censky

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- State and local governments across the country are struggling under the weight of their budget woes.

But does that mean municipal bonds are no longer a safe-haven asset?

Even as finance superstars Meredith Whitney and Nouriel Roubini have sounded the alarms on munis, some investors are saying that's an overreaction.

"When we get a severely negative headline, the entire market reacts," said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist with Janney Montgomery Scott. "But I would argue that the credit quality of government issues, remains, on average, extremely strong."

In December, Whitney made headlines with her controversial forecast of 50 to 100 major muni-bond defaults, totaling "hundreds of billions of dollars." And on Wednesday, Roubini's economic consulting firm predicted municipal bond defaults could total $100 billion over the next five years.

Since November, muni bond fears have run wild, driving up yields and pushing down their prices. But now, some investors are seeing an opportunity, despite the high-profile warnings, and it seems the muni market has calmed.

"It's kind of a Warren Buffett mentality," Lebas said. "Be greedy when others are fearful."

The argument is, municipal bonds -- which are tax exempt -- are now considered cheap and yielding more than ultra-safe Treasuries. The question is, with all the headlines about struggling state and local governments, have they become too risky?

For the complete article.
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