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5/10/2013Market Performance

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S&P National Bond Index 3.00% 0.02
S&P California Bond Index 2.96% 0.02
S&P New York Bond Index 3.13% 0.02
S&P National 0-5 Year Municipal Bond Index 0.70% 0.01
S&P/BGCantor US Treasury Bond 400.09 -0.87
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AESYY $0.28 IAD increased from 0.0303 to 0.2771   May 16
AQN PRA $0.28   Jun 12
BAM PFA $0.28   Jun 12
BAM PFB $0.26   Jun 12
BAM PFC $0.30 IAD decreased from 0.4119 to 0.3031   Jun 12
BAM PRG $0.24   Jul 11
BAM PRJ $0.34   Jun 12
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Problems in US municipal bond market a warning for debt in emerging markets

moneylife - March 7, 2010 - By William Gamble

US municipal bonds paid tax-free interest which made them a very attractive investment. But now, suddenly, investors are selling off what was hitherto considered a generally safe instrument. What went wrong?

How safe is safe? For millions of investors all around the world the goal is not to make a killing in the markets, but to preserve and perhaps slowly grow hard-earned savings. In the United States, one asset class has long been considered to be one of the safest of all. These assets are called municipal bonds. They make up an almost $3 trillion market, two-thirds of which are owned by individual investors They have put their faith in the ability of local governments to get their sums right and their power to tax if they do not. But has this faith been misplaced? And if it has, what lessons are there for fixed income assets throughout the world?

Municipal bonds, or as they're called "Munis", are the debt obligations of the states of the United States and political subdivisions, like counties, cities, and towns. They also include certain projects like utilities or roads and even religious, educational and other charitable organisations like hospitals. Depending on the law of the individual state, the interest income from these bonds is tax-free. The combination of tax-free income from what is generally considered a very safe investment is often irresistible.

They have also been profitable. During the great bond bull market from 1982 to 2008, they paid interest and increased in value. Since the default rate has been negligible, the predictions last fall by high-profile analyst, Meredith Whitney, of a 3% default rate caused a furor.

So what is the reality? Why did so many retail investors, fund managers and other investment professionals consider this market totally safe and what went wrong? What perhaps went wrong was that the three assumptions underpinning this asset class either never existed, have disappeared, or have come under question.

The main problem with this market is transparency. The market is made up of over 17,000 issuers. Most of them are quite small. So they are not covered by any analyst and often not even by a local journalist. They are all also unregulated. The main security law in the US, the Securities Act of 1933 exempts these entities from the rigorous registration required for private issuers and the required ongoing reporting and disclosure.

The result of this lack of regulation is predictable. According to another recent study reported in The Wall Street Journal, "56% filed no financial statements in any given year between 2005 and 2009. More than one-third of borrowers entirely skipped three or more years, and the number grew to 40% in 2009, as credit woes mounted. Another 30% filed extraordinarily late in 2009." One utility from the state of Tennessee didn't file a disclosure for 10 years and then reported a default. The financial records of these issuers including cities, states, hospitals and other borrowers may not be audited, may not be accessible and may not even make sense.

This lack of transparency was not considered that important, it has always been assumed that a government would simply increase taxes to pay bondholders. Bankruptcy at least for states is impossible. However, many of these issuers, specifically the nonprofit entities, do not have the power to tax. Worse some of them like hospitals depend upon reimbursements from cash-strapped political entities.

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