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The Sunny View Of Credit

Forbes.com - March 19, 2010 - by Matthew Craft

Never mind Greece and ignore the bubble babble, Barclays says debt markets haven't lost their appeal.

Even though worries over Greece defaulting on its debt have roiled markets this year, and the cash piling into bond markets at a record-setting pace has some seeing bubbles, Barclays Capital believes the environment for corporate credit looks even better than four months ago.

In the bank's second-quarter outlook released Thursday, Barclays ( BCS - news - people )' researchers found much to like when surveying the credit market's landscape: Fewer companies are missing bond payments; profits are outpacing expectations; and Greece's troubles, they say, likely aren't the start of a trend.

With corporate credit markets on a 10-month tear, Pimco's Bill Gross, the credit-rating agencies, and others in the bond world have warned of a variety of hazards. A steep rise in Treasury yields, for instance, could sink bond prices. Moody's Investors Service estimates a $1.4 trillion wave of corporate bonds and loans needs to be paid off over the next four years, a fact that has some people imagining a disaster. Forced to compete with the U.S. government, the world's biggest borrower, companies may wind up paying crushing interest rates. Those unable to roll over their debts would have to file for bankruptcy.

But this so-called maturity wall has already spurred a flood of refinancing deals, as companies raise cash at current cheap rates from bond buyers to pay down debts and push other due dates further into the future. Take Qwest Communications ( Q - news - people ), which raised $800 million in January through a sale of 7.12% notes due in 2018. The telecom is now attempting to tender $1.2 billion in higher-rate notes maturing this year and next.

Ashish Shah, Barclays' co-head of credit strategy, notes that 76% of all high-yield bond sales this year have been used to refinance existing debt. Shah expects companies will continue to "chop away at the daunting maturity schedule."

The bank that has benefited the most from chaperoning companies to the bond markets: Barclays, according to Thomson Reuters. Boosted by the acquisition of the bulk of Lehman Brothers, it ranks first this year in worldwide debt underwriting, bringing $110.5 billion in bonds to market through March 18. Bank of America ( BAC - news - people ) with $105 billion and Deutsche Bank ( DB - news - people ) with $99.4 billion are next in line.

Barclays' researchers spot a few pitfalls. Record low interest rates are sure to rise as the economy gains strength. That promises higher bond yields and lower bond prices. If rates make a sharp jump, the analysts say, it could send investors, newly enamored with bond funds, rushing to the exits.

Markets are likely to remain volatile, Barclays' analysts say, as long as governments and central bankers mull financial reforms, debate bank regulations and attempt to bridge budget deficits. It's not so much the reforms that trouble traders and investors; it's the uncertainty surrounding them, the fear of the worst-case scenario.


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