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Fitch Publishes U.S. Public Finance Default Study

March 25, 2010, Fitch Ratings

Fitch Ratings-New York-25 March 2010: A new study, covering the period 1999-2009, finds that Fitch-rated U.S. public finance securities demonstrate a high level of credit quality and stability. Even in the difficult recessionary environment of 2009, 87.8% of Fitch-rated U.S. public finance securities retained their rating, down modestly from an average annual stability rate of 92% from 1999-2008.

Where Fitch's U.S. public finance ratings do change, the changes are usually minor.

Fitch-rated U.S. public finance securities experienced one default in 2009, one in 2008, and two in 2007. Over the 1999-2009 period, there have been 10 Fitch-rated U.S. public finance defaults, resulting in an average annual default rate of 0.04%. All but two of these defaults were in the healthcare sector.

The distribution of Fitch's public finance ratings reflects their low propensity to default, with the vast majority of securities rated investment grade. At year-end 2009, the distribution by broad rating category was 'AAA', 9.1%; 'AA', 36.7%; 'A', 40.2%; 'BBB', 11.8%; and below investment grade, 2.1%.

'Fallen angels' (below-investment-grade bonds that were initially rated investment grade) are rare in U.S. public finance, although bonds rated in the 'BBB' category are somewhat more vulnerable. On an average annual basis over the period 1999-2009, the share of investment grade municipal bonds that remained investment grade was very high at 99.6%.

From 1999-2008, Fitch's municipal ratings saw upgrades lead downgrades by a wide margin at times. The severe 2009 economic downturn reversed that trend. The share of Fitch-rated public finance issues that were downgraded in 2009 rose to 7.3%, well above 2008's 2.2%, and the 1999-2008 average annual of 2.4%. However, the 4.9% of ratings upgraded in 2009 were in line with 2008's rate of 4.6% and just slightly below the 5.6% average annual recorded from 1999-2008. The resulting 1.5:1 ratio of downgrades to upgrades in 2009 was higher than any previous year during the 1999 to 2008 period.

The study is titled 'Fitch Ratings U.S. Public Finance Transition and Default Study 1999 - 2009' and is available on Fitch's web site under Credit Market Research.

 
 
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