| Bonds Online |
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| 5/10/2013Market Performance |
| Municipal Bonds |
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S&P National Bond Index
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3.00% |
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S&P California Bond Index
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2.96% |
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S&P New York Bond Index
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3.13% |
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S&P National 0-5 Year Municipal Bond Index
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0.70% |
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| S&P/BGCantor US Treasury Bond |
400.09 |
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| Income Equities: |
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| Preferred Stocks |
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S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index
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848.03 |
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S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index (CAD)
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636.26 |
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S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index (TR)
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1,701.05 |
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S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index (TR) (CAD)
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1,276.26 |
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| REITs |
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S&P REIT Index
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174.07 |
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S&P REIT Index (TR)
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425.30 |
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| MLPs |
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S&P MLP Index
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2,469.58 |
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S&P MLP Index (TR)
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5,428.50 |
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See Data
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Traders Fear Friday's Trading Will Be Out of Sync |
Dow Jones, April 1, 2010
Holidays are rarely unwelcome, but the closing of stock and commodities markets for Good Friday—on a day when bonds will trade—is causing consternation among traders.
The March jobs report, one of the most eagerly awaited economic reports in months, will be released at 8.30 a.m. EDT on Friday. Normally on Good Friday, all markets are closed. But this year, the bond market will be open long enough to let traders act on the news. The futures market also will be open in the morning. But stocks and commodities will be closed all day.
"We've got the granddaddy of all reports coming out on a Friday when 90% of the markets are closed," said Jeffrey Friedman, senior market strategist at futures brokerage Lind-Waldock in Chicago. Mr. Friedman, whose firm will have a skeleton crew working, says he is preparing for swings in the markets that are open on Friday, and volatility on Monday.
The jobs report is big this time. The market is bracing for a watershed number, anticipating strong private-sector job growth—an addition of 200,000 positions—with the potential to alter the outlook for interest rates, now at historic lows.
The markets have been bracing for a watershed number for Friday's jobs report, anticipating strong private-sector job growth, but the stock and commodites markets will be closed for Good Friday. Above, trader Lewis Vande-Pallen with Seaport Securities works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday.
"I've never heard of putting such a big number out on a day when you can't do anything about it," said Ralph Fogel, investment strategist at Fogel Neale Partners, who manages a portfolio of stocks as well as bonds. "Anytime that I can't address a problem in our portfolios, I'm not a happy camper."
The Department of Labor said the fact that the report was coming out on Friday reflects the fact that it's not a government holiday. "If the federal government is open, releases follow the normal schedule,'' said spokeswoman Jennifer Kaplan.
Many in the stock market are banking on a positive report, evidence they say is needed to justify the market's recent steady march higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average – up over 5% in March - closed on Wednesday, down 50.79 points, or 0.47%, at 10856.63, near its 18-month high.
Meanwhile, in the government bond market, investors are worried a strong report will send interest rates shooting higher. Thin trading volumes could exacerbate any moves.
Economists estimate that non-farm payrolls grew by 200,000 jobs in March, though data released on Wednesday by Automatic Data Processing showing private payrolls down 23,000 jobs in the month doused expectations somewhat. The conflicting data -- a report Thursday showed the number of workers filing new claims for jobless benefits continued to fall last week, bolstering expectations that the labor market is slowly healing -- is making investors even more nervous.
Tom di Galoma, head of fixed-income rates trading at Guggenheim Partners in New York, said he plans to be fully staffed on Friday. "We want to be able to take the opportunity to either buy or sell securities on a day when no one's going to be around," he said.
The employment report and Good Friday have collided in the past – most recently in 2007 – but perhaps most notably in 1994, when a big increase in payrolls sent 10-year Treasury yields up 20 basis points on the Friday and another 20 basis points the following Monday, according to analysts at Barclays Capital.
When stocks opened on the Monday, the Standard & Poor's 500 index, having already fallen 5.5% in two weeks, dropped 1.5%.
"I just don't think it's appropriate to announce a data point that's so important on a day that's not a naturally functioning market day," said Bryan Bailey, who manages Waddell & Reed Advisors Municipal Bond Fund and Ivy Municipal Bond Fund, about the payrolls report.
Mr. Bailey said he won't be in the office but will be watching his data screens at home. The impact will depend on whether the payrolls data meet consensus. If not, "absolutely, you're going to see a lot of volatility."
The New York Stock Exchange said it sets its schedule more than a year in advance and tries not to alter it.
"Our general practice is that our markets should not be closed for more than three consecutive days," said spokesman Ray Pellecchia. "And as you know there are a number of days when the bond market is closed but equities are open."
The Nasdaq didn't consider opening because of the data, a spokesperson said.
Jim Imhof, head of trading at Russell Investments in Tacoma said about half of his 20-member staff would be in on Friday, including some who will trade stocks in the after-hours market if necessary following the jobs report.
"If you have anything big that you have to do, that could be a problem, since we're not going to have a lot of liquidity," said Mr. Imhof. "But we'll execute whatever trades we have to execute."
Regarding the currency markets, which technically have no open or closing times, Mr. Imhof said: "Around noon, we're expecting things to completely dry up."
Barring a shocking number, the biggest Treasury moves of the week might not happen on Friday. Thursday could be bigger, given that the Treasury Department is due to announce the size of next week's auctions of new 3-year, 10-year and 30-year debt.
Some investors may choose to avoid trading on Friday because there will be no trade settlement—purchased bonds actually changing hands. As a result, Treasurys purchased on Friday won't be available to sell again until Tuesday.
Whatever the bond-market action on Friday morning, it will likely be brief. "You can set up one of those ping-pong tables that folds in half and play against yourself," said Brian Yelvington, fixed-income strategist at Knight Libertas, a Greenwich, Connecticut trading firm.
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