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After Greece
With a big bond issue maturing in May, it's crunch time for Portugal.

Forbes.com - April 22, 2010 - by Anita Raghavan

The Greek debt crisis was roiling global markets again Thursday, but in the next month investors will turn their eye to another euro zone country facing a fiscal strait-jacket: Portugal.

The similarities between Greece and Portugal are striking. Portugal's budget deficit is about 9% of gross domestic product. Eurostat just announced that Greece's deficit as a percentage of GDP in 2009 was 13.6%, instead of the previously predicted 12.9%. Meanwhile, the ratio of government debt to GDP stands at 77% in Portugal compared to 115.1% in Greece, which represents the second-highest ratio of debt to GDP in the European Union after Italy.

In the credit default swap market, where investors buy protection against the possibility of a default, the spread between the cost to insure Greek and German debt has risen from 253 basis points in January to 452 basis points Wednesday night and is rapidly heading toward 500 basis points, traders say, suggesting that investors are becoming more pessimistic about Greece's ability to pay its debts. The spread of Portugal over Greece in the CDS market was 65 basis points in January and is now 196 basis points.

The woes of the two nations are wearing on the euro. While the currencies of most of the nations in the Group of Ten (actually a group of eleven industrial countries) have rallied in the past week, the euro has slipped.

"Portugal is the most similar country to Greece to some extent in terms of the fiscal aggregates,'' says Giovanni Zanni, European economist at Credit Suisse in London. But Zanni thinks Portugal's situation is less perilous. "Debt of 77% is not debt of 115%, and a budget deficit of 9% is not a deficit of 13%." What's more, Zanni says that growth in Portugal appears to be heading higher. By comparison, Greece's growth is trending lower.

Portugal also has more credibility in the markets because there is no evidence that the government tried to mask its financial condition as there is with Greece.

Still, May will be a tough month for Portugal. The government needs to raise 37 billion euros, or 23% of its GDP, in financing this year, says Credit Suisse. It has one bond issue totaling 5.9 billion euros maturing in May and 17.4 billion euros of bills, of which just over 4 billion euros matured in January, when Portugal auctioned 1 billion euros of debt and 2 billion euros of bills, of which 700 million euros matures in July.

Credit Suisse estimates that Portugal will have to raise 35 billion euros of debt in the remainder of this year. "Looking at the maturity profile of the debt, it appears that May could be the most challenging month for authorities,'' the firm concludes.
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