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New York - Moody's: First quarter rating changes point to tough year ahead for U.S. state & local governments

Moody's - April 27, 2011

Moody's: First quarter rating changes point to tough year ahead for U.S. state & local governments

New York, April 26, 2011 -- With downgrades again outpacing upgrades in the first quarter of this year, 2011 is expected to be another challenging year across all major municipal sectors and the toughest year so far for US state and local governments since the beginning of the economic downturn in 2008, says Moody's Investors Service in a new report.

"Rating activity during the first three months of 2011 marked the ninth consecutive quarter in which downgrades in the municipal sector exceeded upgrades," said Moody's Assistant Vice President Conor McEachern, author of the report. "With negative outlooks assigned to all major municipal sectors, the trend is likely to prevail for all of 2011."

The first quarter saw 66 downgrades and 17 upgrades, a ratio of 3.9 to 1 -- the second highest downgrade-to-upgrade ratio since the first quarter of 2002, trailing only the fourth quarter of 2010 when the ratio measured 4.6 to 1. The ratio for full-year 2010 was 2.2 to 1.

In the tax-backed sector, which includes state and local governments, rating changes for the first quarter included 39 downgrades and 10 upgrades for a downgrade-to-upgrade ratio of 3.9 to 1, the same as for all of public finance. This is down from the 5.0 to 1 ratio during the fourth quarter of 2010.

"We expect downgrades to continue to exceed upgrades throughout 2011 for states and local governments and school districts as states cope with the effects of weak revenue growth, significant spending obligations, and the loss of federal stimulus funding," said McEachern. "Local municipalities will struggle to maintain structural balance in an environment of declining state aid, lower assessed valuations, and fewer budgetary options."

In the revenue enterprise sector, which includes healthcare, higher education, other not-for-profits, housing and infrastructure, downgrades also outpaced upgrades in the first quarter. Of the 34 rating changes in the sector , 27 or 79% were downgrades for a downgrade-to-upgrade ratio of 3.9 to 1. This is down slightly from the 4.2 to 1 ratio during fourth quarter of 2010.

The report, "U.S. Public Finance First Quarter 2011 Rating Revisions," is available at moodys.com.
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