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California Market On Hold

Brown Hunts for Balanced Budget
The Bond Buyer - May 13, 2011 - by Randall Jensen

SAN FRANCISCO — As Gov. Jerry Brown readies the release of his second shot at a balanced budget next week, the California bond market has become hamstrung by the delay.

Uncertainty about passage of a balanced budget has caused California — the largest seller of municipal debt — to hold back on issuing any new paper, and has also kept state municipalities out of the market because of unknowns surrounding the budget’s impact.

As a result, the lack of new bonds in an already shallow debt market has caused investors to flock to quality short-term bonds and others to bargain hunt in the opposite end of the secondary market, said Bud Byrnes, chief executive at Encino, Calif.-based RH Investment Corp., a broker-dealer specializing in California municipal bonds.

“This is as unique of a situation in the California bond market as I have seen in my 30 years in the midst of it,” he said. “The state should be able to conduct its normal business despite the budget impasse, but it can’t.”

Byrnes said investors have been paying dear prices for California paper with maturities inside five years, while others have been buying at high yields in older maturities to hedge against any potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Until the budget passes, he said he expects the market to stay the same, or get worse in the case of an unforeseen event.

California general obligation bonds maturing in 2040 initially sold in March last year at a price of 97.84% of par and a yield of 5.5% traded on Wednesday for 101.66% and yield of 5.26% in a block of more than one million, according to the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board.

The same bonds maturing in 2016 and initially priced at 101.83% to yield 3.5% traded on Wednesday for 105.64% at a 2.25% yield in a block of 200,000.

In the overall market Wednesday, the 10-year muni yield fell four basis points to 2.70%, according to Thomson Reuters, its lowest since Nov. 12. The two-year yield fell four basis points to 0.50% and the 30-year yield fell two basis points to 4.43%.

The market has also suffered from a shortage of issuance this year after a deluge of Build America Bonds sold before the program expired at the end of 2010.

Municipal bonds sold in the first quarter of this year total just $46.94 billion, the weakest volume since the first quarter of 2000 and 55% less than the same period last year, according to Thomson Reuters.

California has no plans to go to market until the fall, and even that is far from certain. “We still hope to be in the market this fall to sell $5.5 billion to $6 billion of GO bonds.  But the treasurer has no interest in selling bonds without a balanced budget in place,” said Tom Dresslar, a spokesman for state Treasurer Bill Lockyer.

Dresslar said GO-bond financed public works programs have enough funds to make it though the end of the calendar year, but added that if the state doesn’t go to market until next year current projects could face a shutdown.

For the complete article.
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