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Corporate Credit's Sudden Stress

Forbes.com - May 27, 2010 - by Matthew Craft

Amid fears that Europe's problems could spread, bond buyers have dropped their stakes in risky companies with heavy debt burdens and weak credit ratings. As a result, the share of bonds that look likely to default has suddenly jumped for the first time since 2008. Standard & Poor's counts 9.4% of the high-yield market trading at distressed levels, up from 6.7% in April.

Diane Vazza, head of S&P's fixed-income research, says the U.S. economy appears to be gaining strength but a lack of certainty over how Europe's debt troubles and proposed financial regulation will play out is plaguing markets.

"It's just this continued uncertainty," Vazza says. "It's uncertainty over Europe. It's uncertainty in the regulatory environment."

The junk bond market's long run, during which it soared to 99.67 cents on the dollar April 30, has reversed course. The average bond now trades at 94 cents on the dollar and pays a 9.24% yield, according to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch index data. A bond appears distressed when it pays 10 percentage points more than Treasuries of comparable maturity.

The distressed share of the market has been slowly falling every month since December 2008, when credit markets were choked with fear and the distress ratio notched an all-time high of 85.2%, according to Vazza. The current selloff looks far from panic-driven when compared to how the junk bond market traded most of last year. BofA-Merrill's high-yield index was itself distressed until last July, when the average spread to Treasuries finally slipped under 10 percentage points on July 24. The spread hit 21.8 points in December 2008.

S&P added 22 new names to its list of companies with distressed debt this month, raising the tally to 92. Among them are a slew of companies owned by private equity firms: credit card processor First Data, chipmaker Freescale Semiconductor and broadcaster Clear Channel Communications.

First Data's notes maturing in 2016 have dropped 19% this month to a recent 65 cents on the dollar, according to KDP Investment Advisors. (KDP considers the bonds worth buying).

Publicly traded companies with distressed debt include Rite Aid Corp. ( RAD - news - people ), movie rental chain Blockbuster ( BBI - news - people ) and Radio One ( ROIA - news - people )
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