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5/10/2013Market Performance

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S&P National 0-5 Year Municipal Bond Index 0.70% 0.01
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BAM PFA $0.28   Jun 12
BAM PFB $0.26   Jun 12
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BAM PRG $0.24   Jul 11
BAM PRJ $0.34   Jun 12
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Munis Down By Half

THE BOND BUYER - June 1, 2011 - By Taylor Riggs

Long-term municipal bond issuance is half of what it was a year ago, with volume down 51% through the end of May versus the same time last year.

Monthly Tables

Roughly $83.7 billion of new debt has come to market so far this year, less than half of the $170 billion priced over the first five months of 2010, according to data from Thomson Reuters.

Volume for the first five months of the year is the lowest it’s been since 2000, when $73.07 billion of bonds were issued. It is also the first time since 2000 that yearly volume has not reached $100 billion through May.

Debt issuance last month was hardly what it was last May, with $21 billion coming to market, down 45.4% from the $38 billion that was issued in May 2010.

While issuance in May was the highest of any month thus far in 2011, the total is still lower than any month in 2009 or 2010. It also marked the lowest May volume since 2000, when it was $15.96 billion.

“Now that we find ourselves almost halfway through 2011, most municipal new-issue primary market volume predictions are proving to be overestimated and recent lower than typical volume has created a troubling atmosphere for investors looking for new issue buying opportunities,” Tom Kozlik, municipal credit analyst at Janney Capital Markets, said in a monthly bond market column.

Expected annual volume was slashed several times to an estimated $250 billion, down from a typical year of $400 billion.

Chris Mier, managing director at Loop Capital, said low volume could be here to stay, at least for the next several years. “It’s appropriate to be worried about low issuance for no other reason than this business has typically been built around volume between $350 to $425 billion for a decade,” he said.

“This low issuance points to a powerful dynamic where the political benefit of offering infrastructure projects has completely reversed,” Mier said. “Five years ago, it might have been favorably received to issue bonds for an infrastructure project. But at the moment, taxpayers want very conservative financial management.”

Mier added that volume may not jump back to the normal $400 billion range immediately. “How long will this period of low issuance last? It could last the balance of this year and all of 2012 until the election. Maybe this year it will be $250

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