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5/10/2013Market Performance

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S&P National Bond Index 3.00% 0.02
S&P California Bond Index 2.96% 0.02
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S&P National 0-5 Year Municipal Bond Index 0.70% 0.01
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AESYY $0.28 IAD increased from 0.0303 to 0.2771   May 16
AQN PRA $0.28   Jun 12
BAM PFA $0.28   Jun 12
BAM PFB $0.26   Jun 12
BAM PFC $0.30 IAD decreased from 0.4119 to 0.3031   Jun 12
BAM PRG $0.24   Jul 11
BAM PRJ $0.34   Jun 12
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Credit Spreads Fairly Valued

MORNINGSTAR - June 13, 2011 - By Dave Sekera

Credit spreads will likely enter a narrow trading range over the next few months until the markets gain further clarity on the longer term.

The credit markets continued to weaken last week, as the Morningstar Corporate Bond Index widened 4 basis points to +150. The financial sector has widened 7 basis points and has been hit the hardest versus the industrial sector, which widened 3 basis points.

Since the beginning of May, when credit spreads were at the tightest levels of the year and the deluge of new issue bonds was just beginning, the index has widened 16 basis points. In fact, credit spreads have performed a round trip and are back to the same levels we witnessed at the beginning of the year.

Considering the recent record amount of new-issue bonds the market has had to absorb in the face of declining economic indicators, we believe it's a sign of strength that the market has only widened 4 basis points.

Morningstar's director of economic research, Robert Johnson, recently reduced his outlook for 2011 real GDP by 0.75 percentage points to a range of 2.5%- 3.0%. Weak auto production, stagnant real wages, and weather effects are taking their toll. Unfortunately, it appears that these issues will continue to pressure economic metrics in the near term. However, as he looks out into the second half of the year, Johnson thinks the effects from Japan should dissipate, and the impact from weather will likely wear off. Assuming consumers maintain their recent spending habits, the rate of GDP growth should improve. For a detailed analysis, please see Bob's recent piece, "Grim Numbers Now, Grimmer Numbers on the Way."

Since the middle of last year, we have opined that credit spreads would continue to tighten as underlying fundamentals strengthened. Credit metrics have generally improved as the preponderance of companies we rate have generated strong free cash flow, increased liquidity, and reduced debt leverage. While we don't foresee any significant change in our view on default risk, with the reduction in our assessment of GDP growth this year, we think credit spreads will likely enter a narrow trading range over the next few months until the markets gain further clarity on the longer term. We think credit spreads are fairly valued in this range, and provide investors with a reasonable return over underlying Treasury rates.

For the complete article.
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