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| BondsOnline.com: instant access to and extensive coverage of over 3.5 million stocks, bonds, indexes and other securities covering major and emerging markets and exchanges across the globe. |
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| Bonds Online |
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| 5/10/2013Market Performance |
| Municipal Bonds |
|---|
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S&P National Bond Index
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3.00% |
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S&P California Bond Index
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2.96% |
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S&P New York Bond Index
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3.13% |
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S&P National 0-5 Year Municipal Bond Index
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0.70% |
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| S&P/BGCantor US Treasury Bond |
400.09 |
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| More |
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| Income Equities: |
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| Preferred Stocks |
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S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index
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848.03 |
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S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index (CAD)
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636.26 |
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S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index (TR)
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1,701.05 |
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S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index (TR) (CAD)
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1,276.26 |
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| REITs |
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S&P REIT Index
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174.07 |
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S&P REIT Index (TR)
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425.30 |
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| MLPs |
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S&P MLP Index
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2,469.58 |
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S&P MLP Index (TR)
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5,428.50 |
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See Data
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Coping With the Bogeyman of a Market Crash |
HUFFPOST BUSINESS - June 14, 2011 - By Dan Solin
In December, 2010, Meredith Whitney, a highly respected banking analyst, went on 60 Minutes and predicted massive defaults in the municipal bond markets. Investors took note. The outflow from municipal bonds totaled $49 billion.
Investors who ignored the dire predictions of Ms. Whitney fared well. Municipal bonds have outperformed the broad market year-to-date. According to Stephen Weiss of Short Hills Capital, "Local governments are actually in better shape because of higher tax income and lower costs this year."
Undeterred, Ms. Whitney recently proclaimed: "I know I'm right."
Mohamed El-Erian doesn't think so. Mr. El-Erian ought to know. He is the CEO of PIMCO, which is one of the largest bond investors in the world. PIMCO manages over $1.2 trillion in assets. According to Mr. El-Erian, the "top down" approach used by Ms. Whitney in her analysis is fundamentally wrong.
On the stock side, things are no better. The Dow dropped below 12,000 for the first time since March, extending the longest weekly losing streak since 2002. How fortunate investors are to have the benefit of the views of financial pros to guide them through this crisis. James Altucher, who pretends to be able to predict the future of the market, has gazed into his crystal ball and tells the unwashed masses that the Dow will not only recover, but is destined to hit 20,000. He provides 10 reasons to support his prediction.
Stock market newsletter editors see things quite differently. According to one report, bullish sentiment has fallen to 40.9%, which is the lowest since the market rally began in September.
Should investors pay heed to Ms. Whitney or Mr. El-Erian? To Mr. Altucher or to editors of stock market newsletters?
The answer is simple: Ignore them all.
There is no evidence anyone has the ability to predict the future of the markets. There is significant data to the contrary. One study looked at 15,000 predictions by 237 market timing newsletters over a 12.5 year period. 94.5% of the newsletters studied went out of business. The average length of operations was only four years. The authors of the study found no evidence the newsletters were able to time the market.
If Mr. Altucher and other bulls turn out to be right, they will tout their skill. If the bearish editors of newsletters correctly call a falling market, they will do the same. Both will be mistaken. They confuse luck with skill. Skill has persistence. Luck doesn't.
There is a better way. If you have less than five years before you will need 20% or more the money you are investing, you should have no exposure to the stock market. If you have a longer time horizon, you should determine your asset allocation by taking an asset allocation questionnaire, so that your stock market exposure will permit you to hold (and not panic) during periods of short term volatility. Limit your investments to a globally diversified portfolio of low management fee, stock and bond index funds, passively managed funds or exchange traded funds.
For the complete article.
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| Stuff to look at |
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| BondsOnline Advisor |
Income Security Recommendation January 2013 Issue.
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