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Morningstar Update: Bleak Outlook for Investors

moneywatch.com - June 24, 2010 - by Jack Otter

As 1,300 investors and financial advisors meet in Chicago to share investment ideas at the annual Morningstar Investment Conference, the overarching question seems to be: “What now for the financial markets?” And more than a few respected money managers have fairly pessimistic answers to that question.

Steve Romick, manager of the FPA Crescent Fund (FPACX), put it rather bluntly: “You got a rock? Hide under it.”

Romick may have been half joking, and he does believe the economy will “muddle through” its problems. But there’s broad agreement that those problems are serious.

Topping the list: government debt. The dot-com bubble a decade ago has been replaced by a “dot-gov bubble,” says Rudolph-Riad Younes, head of international equities at Artio Global Investors and manager of the Artio International Equity fund (JIEIX).

In a keynote address opening the conference, Jeffrey Gundlach warned of the possibility of a double-dip recession. Perhaps the only good news, Gundlach says, is that for the moment, the U.S. is seen by the rest of the world as the safe place to be, and therefore money will continue to flow into government bonds — keeping interest rates (and Uncle Sam’s borrowing costs) low. Gundlach, the outspoken founder of mutual fund company DoubleLine Capital, has serious cred with the Morningstar crowd; in a speech at the 2007 Conference he described the subprime mortgage market as a “total, unmitigated disaster.” He got that one right.

So what does this mean for your portfolio? Despite their gloomy projections, the managers see investment opportunities. Though nearly half of Romick’s fund (which has averaged an impressive 11 percent a year over the past decade) is in cash, he made the case for energy stocks. He thinks energy will benefit because supply is restricted, and because it will gain if the dollar loses value or inflation returns.

For the complete article go to: moneywatch.com
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