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BAM PRJ $0.34   Jun 12
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Investing In Bonds Of Low-Debt Nations

Forbes.com - July 1, 2010 - by Matthew Craft

David Rolley's fund can shop for bonds anywhere in the world. His favored spot: countries whose low debt loads give them the best chances of paying them off.

Where are you going to hide from the next debt bomb? Assuming there's a safe haven anywhere, it's likely to be in countries not hocked up to precarious levels.

That's the view of David Rolley, global investment strategist for Loomis Sayles, a $145 billion money manager, and comanager of its Global Bond Fund. Rolley is a 58-year-old economist who worked at Drexel Burnham Lambert until it blew up and knows how badly events can unfold for bond investors.

These days he's shunning "core" countries, by which he means those with big economies and big debts, like the U.S., Japan and the U.K. The spending cuts and tax hikes they will be forced to impose will impair growth and enfeeble currencies. By contrast, countries on the periphery have smaller deficits and less drag.

"Clients don't ask, 'Is China safe? Is Brazil safe?' They ask, 'Is Italy solvent?'" says Rolley. The short answer: Don't buy Italian government bonds; consider buying bonds from Brazil or Canada instead.

The 29 economically most advanced countries, including the U.S., Japan and Germany, have average ratios of net government debt to GDP of 70% and will expand 2.3% this year, the International Monetary Fund says. In 27 developing countries, government debt averages 28% of GDP and growth is expected to average 6.3%.

The Greek crisis has, of course, focused additional attention on such differences. Investors have responded by putting $16 billion into emerging market debt funds this year, says fund tracker epfr Global.

For the complete article visit Forbes.com

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