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5/10/2013Market Performance

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Municipal Bonds
S&P National Bond Index 3.00% 0.02
S&P California Bond Index 2.96% 0.02
S&P New York Bond Index 3.13% 0.02
S&P National 0-5 Year Municipal Bond Index 0.70% 0.01
S&P/BGCantor US Treasury Bond 400.09 -0.87
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S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index 848.03 -1.02
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Income Security Dividends

Security Amount Ex-Div Date
AESYY $0.28 IAD increased from 0.0303 to 0.2771   May 16
AQN PRA $0.28   Jun 12
BAM PFA $0.28   Jun 12
BAM PFB $0.26   Jun 12
BAM PFC $0.30 IAD decreased from 0.4119 to 0.3031   Jun 12
BAM PRG $0.24   Jul 11
BAM PRJ $0.34   Jun 12
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How to Invest in Light of Current Real Federal Funds Rates

Seeking Alpha - July 6, 2011 - By Faisal Humayun

The financial crisis marked the beginning of another prolonged period of artificially low Fed fund rates. Further, since the crisis began, the real Fed fund rates have continuously been in the negative zone.

Considering the fact that unemployment is still over 9% and the economy is largely supported by stimulus packages (in some way or the other), it is important to investigate if the real Fed fund rates will ever be positive again. Understanding this is important not only for understanding the overall economic scenario and outlook, but also for personal investment decisions.

In my opinion, the real Fed fund rates are bound to remain negative for the long term, at least for the next 5-10 years. Discussed below are some arguments for this conclusion.

The most important reason for the above conclusion is the mindset and intentions of the policy makers. Mr. Bernanke has emphasized the fact that interest rates will remain lower for an extended period. However, the objective is not just to support the economy. The objective is also to avoid significant increases in interest payments on the huge debt burden on the country. Therefore, it is important for the policy makers to keep interest rates low and debt monetization is just one tool the Fed has used to achieve this objective.

One might argue that a further increase in inflation (which is very likely), might force the Fed to increase interest rates. However, when considering the real Fed fund rates, the number is most likely to remain negative. Therefore, we might have interest rates at 10% and inflation at 15%. I am not suggesting 15% inflation. The point I am making here is that the Fed will never increase interest rates above the rate of inflation (as it should be in all healthy economic systems). Further, the current reported inflation numbers are also debatable and one can make a case of even more negative real Fed fund rates.

For the complete article.

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