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5/10/2013Market Performance

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S&P National Bond Index 3.00% 0.02
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AESYY $0.28 IAD increased from 0.0303 to 0.2771   May 16
AQN PRA $0.28   Jun 12
BAM PFA $0.28   Jun 12
BAM PFB $0.26   Jun 12
BAM PFC $0.30 IAD decreased from 0.4119 to 0.3031   Jun 12
BAM PRG $0.24   Jul 11
BAM PRJ $0.34   Jun 12
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Fed Sees Slower Growth
Officials Debate How to Respond if Recovery Falters; Softer 2nd Half Is Seen

WSJ.com - July 14, 2010 - By JON HILSENRATH

Federal Reserve officials, who are likely to reveal Wednesday a cut in their assessment of the growth outlook, are divided on how aggressively the central bank should act if the economy slows further.

Fed officials still expect the U.S. economy to keep growing. But an updated forecast to be released Wednesday afternoon with the minutes of the Fed's late-June policy meeting is likely to show that officials have trimmed their second-half forecasts—as have many private forecasters.

One topic under debate is the possibility that today's already-low inflation may turn into a debilitating bout of deflation, a broad drop in prices across the economy.

Fed officials disagree on the risk of deflation. A few see it as a threat; others call it very unlikely, Fed officials said in recent interviews.

For now, the Fed—and particularly its most-powerful member, Chairman Ben Bernanke, who has ultimate say—appears to be very much in wait-and-see mode. But differences among his colleagues are growing more evident. One problem: Having already cut interest rates to near zero, most of the Fed's options for spurring growth aren't very appealing.

Some policy makers, including Fed governor Kevin Warsh and Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Va., are reluctant to revive Fed purchases of U.S. government bonds or mortgage-backed securities, the most forceful action the bank could take if it decides the economy needs more help.

Fed staff estimate that the purchase of $1.25 trillion in bonds in 2009 and early 2010 pushed down long-term interest rates by roughly half a percentage point.

But somes skeptics inside the Fed don't believe the impact was that large and think a new round of purchases might have even less impact because markets are now on a more solid footing.

Renewing the purchases would also leave the Fed with a bigger portfolio to shrink, when that time comes, and could backfire if it pushes expectations for future inflation sharply higher.

"We're a long way away from needing to think about starting up asset purchases," Mr. Lacker said in an interview. "The recovery will take time. We just have to be patient and manage it carefully. I don't think this is a time to shift gears again."

For the complete article visit WSJ.com
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