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Debt ceiling: Investors acting like ostriches?

CNNMoney - July 14, 2011 - By Paul R. La Monica

There is a lot of talk about how politicians are playing a game of chicken with the debt ceiling.
But when you consider how calm the market -- especially bond investors -- have been as the August 2 D-Day approaches, another avian creature comes to mind: the ostrich.

re fixed-income investors burying their head in the sand and ignoring the possibility that Republicans and Democrats won't play nice and raise the debt ceiling?
Bond rating agency Moody's said late Wednesday it was putting U.S. debt on review for a possible downgrade if there is no agreement to boost the borrowing limit -- which would likely result in the government missing interest payments to creditors.

And Moody's rival Standard & Poor's has reportedly told lawmakers that it may downgrade the U.S. even if it doesn't technically default.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has been using the word "calamity" in front of Congress the past two days to describe what would happen if the debt ceiling is not raised.
Still, the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury is a very low 2.92%, a sign that there is strong demand for Uncle Sam's debt despite the dire warnings about what might happen if there is no deficit deal. (Bond yields fall as their prices get pushed up.)

More on America's debt crisis

Contrast the low rates in America with the yields on long-term bonds from some of the troubled nations in Europe. Italy's 10 Year government bond yields 5.6%, for example.

And that's nothing compared to the rates for the most troublesome three little PIIGS-ies in the Euro Zone. Portugal's 10 Year yield is 12.7%. Ireland's 10 Year yield is 13.9% And in Greece, aka the birthplace of this current sovereign debt crisis (as well as democracy), the 10 Year yield is a staggering 17.1%.

Of course, U.S. Treasury yields shouldn't be trading at Italy-like levels, let alone the double-digit rates of Portugal, Ireland and Greece. But shouldn't bond investors be a little more nervous?

Amazingly enough, most experts say no. That's because they still believe that despite the jawboning in Washington, the market has faith that the president and Congress will eventually hammer out a deal before the nightmare scenario of bond defaults and no Social Security checks unfolds.

"When you look at Treasury yields, the market does not seem to be disturbed by this at all," said Jeffrey Cleveland, senior economist at Payden & Rygel, a money management firm in Los Angeles. "There are lots of questions about whether the U.S. will default, but it seems unlikely to happen."

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