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Foreigners Bought Fewer Long-Term U.S. Securities in May

BloggingStocks.com - July 17, 2010 - by Connie Madon

In May, net long-term inflows into the United States fell to $35.4 billion from April's $81.5 billion. Foreigners bought only $14.9 billion in May, down from $76.4 billion in April. China, in particular, cut its treasury holdings by $43.5 billion to $867.7 billion. Japan, the second largest holder reduced its treasury stash by $8.8 billion to $786.7 billion.

This one is disturbing. Official or government investors were net sellers of $38.8 billion, a record. Private investors bought net $56.2 billion.

Here's the nub of the problem. The U.S. has huge budget deficits to finance. The US is keeping interest rates low to jump start the economy. However, in order for this scenario to work, the U.S. must have buyers for its bonds and notes. China and Japan normally are the biggest foreign buyers. Both are pulling back. This pullback may fuel a psychological trigger: that the U.S. will not be able to finance its deficit. Todd Elmer, of Citigroup, Inc. (C) said: "The pullback in foreign purchases of treasuries may feed concern on the ability of the U.S. to finance its deficits" at a time when yields are low.

The benchmark 10-year note ended May at 3.29% and has since moved down to 2.88% in July.

Corporate bonds saw a new outflow of $9 billion in May after a rise of $10.1 billion in April. Net outflows for equities in May was $432 million, after a whopping $9.6 billion inflow in April.

What this means is that where the U.S. Treasury has enjoyed a sweet spot with foreign buying of our notes and bonds at low yields, now this is changing. How dramatic the change will be in the coming months is unknown. Nevertheless, the trend bears watching. The Fed may be forced to raise rates to give investors a higher yield. With a struggling economy, this would create a nightmare scenario.

Do you believe that foreigners will continue to cutback in their purchases of U.S. securities?
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