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BAM PFB $0.26   Jun 12
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Downgrade Danger For Corporate Bonds?

SmartMoney - July 21, 2011 - By Jonnelle Marte

Corporate bonds' recent winning streak could soon be coming to an end.

With investors fixated on the possibility of the U.S. losing its stellar credit rating, they may be missing another danger lurking in the fixed-income market, say experts: More corporate bonds could be headed for downgrades of their own.

While corporate bonds saw a record low number of downgrades and defaults in the second quarter, some analysts say that winning streak may be coming to an end. This comes at a time when income-starved investors have been flocking to corporate bonds for their relatively healthy yields. Investors have poured $42 billion into corporate bond funds so far this year, following inflows of $106 billion in 2010, according to fund researcher Lipper. "The crystal ball is a little foggy as we go into next year," says James Dailey, portfolio manager of the Team Asset Strategy fund (TEAMX). "Credit conditions could deteriorate."

Market watchers point to signs that the corporate bond market could be headed for a rough patch. Downgrades and defaults rise when corporate debts outpace profits -- a scenario that's becoming more likely as economic growth remains sluggish, says John Lonski, a chief economist at Moody's Analytics. And with unemployment hovering at above 9%, consumers may further cut back on spending, squeezing corporate profits even more and making it more difficult for companies to issue new bonds. "It's not exactly alarming yet but things are moving in the wrong direction," says Lonski. "If it continues we could be staring at a credit cycle slump and with that more downgrades and credit defaults."

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