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Potential U.S. downgrade highlights strong balance sheets

REUTERS - July 27, 2011 - By Timothy Sifert

NEW YORK, July 27 (IFR) - A U.S. sovereign downgrade is likely to drive down yields on U.S. investment grade corporate bonds, as wary investors snap up these cash-rich credits and the government deals with its own messy balance sheet.

The looming downgrade has some investors rethinking the composition of their portfolios, and while there's no pressing need yet to make major changes, the safer bets are beginning to emerge.

"I think a downgrade would have an impact more on the equity markets than on the debt markets," said Bill Larkin, fixed-income portfolio manager at Cabot Money Management. "In the longer run after a downgrade, people are going to be more conservative, more risk averse. That could create a deflationary environment, which is a positive for bonds, not for equities."

That's not to say that a downgrade by any of the three major rating agencies would immediately take away the safe-haven status of Treasury bonds. In fact, those highly liquid securities could rally as a result.

However, a U.S. sovereign downgrade scenario has highlighted for many investors the comparably stellar earnings performance -- and balance sheet strength -- of U.S. corporations, making the corporate bond market (excluding financials) the go-to place for portfolio managers to get a safe pick-up over Treasuries.

"We're not doing a whole lot differently <ahead of a potential downgrade>," said Tom Murphy, portfolio manager at Columbia Management in Minneapolis. "We're reducing our sensitivity to interest rates, but one thing that's been lost in all this is how strong corporate earnings have been.

"Net income growth is about 20% for those in the S&P (excluding financials) that have reported. The best place to be right now is corporate bonds. Of course you have to pick your spots, and where we're not generally investing is financials."

Analysts, too, recognize the strength of corporations, excluding financials. A Moody's report released earlier Wednesday noted that U.S. non-financial corporate cash holdings increased to $1.24trillion at the end of 2010 from $1.11trillion a year before, an 11.2% increase.

The report highlights how well diversified corporations' revenue streams are -- nearly half of the cash holdings reside overseas.

For the complete article.
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