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Corporate bonds rise as countries sink in debt

FINANCIAL POST - August 2, 2011 - By Natsuko Waki, Reuters

LONDON . Major international companies are moving up the credit ratings ladder and even overtaking their home governments, providing investors with attractive alternatives.

While the United States runs the risk of losing its topnotch triple-A credit ratings after a long, bruising battle over its debt ceiling, a number of multinational companies look set to benefit from higher ratings than their sovereigns.

Usually the sovereign - the government - is seen as the most solvent entity in the country given its huge cash pile from tax receipts and international reserves and its ability to generate cash by selling state-owned assets.

But today a number of governments face bigger risks of downgrades or defaults than private-sector firms as finances in developed economies deteriorate in the wake of the credit crisis.

In contrast, companies, especially those generating revenue in the emerging world, are enjoying high levels of cash flows.

"Since 2008 a large number of multinationals have deleveraged and increased cash in the balance sheets, so you end up with an upgrade cycle. This is leading to some companies rated better than the state," said Ashok Shah, chief investment officer of London & Capital.

"More and more companies will fall into this category."

Globally, 107 corporate and local governments have higher ratings than those of the sovereign in their country of domicile on a foreign currency basis, Standard & Poor's says. That means these entities are seen as likely to be able to cover their debt obligations even when the central government of the country they are based in cannot.

"Balance sheets of OECD countries will continue to deteriorate. You're looking at a medium to long-term credit downgrade cycle over the next five years," said Mr. Shah.

In some cases, it also costs investors less to insure the debt of safe-haven companies - defensive, non-cyclical stocks with high free cash flow and low leverage - against default than the debt of their sovereigns, adding to their appeal.

In the United States, Automatic Data Processing (ADP/ NASDAQ), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM/NYSE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ/NYSE) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT/NASDAQ) all boast triple-A ratings.

S&P has said that a change in the U.S. sovereign credit rating or outlook will not affect these four corporates.

The cost of insuring the four companies' debt against default on a five-year horizon is at least 20 basis points lower than that of the U.S. government).

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