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'Pain for progress': Pan-euro bonds inevitable

Investment News - Sept. 11, 2011 - By Drew Carter

Unofficial proposals to create government debt backed by the entire 17-member eurozone would produce a massive bond market, similar in size, liquidity and quality to the $7.3 trillion U.S. Treasury market.

The proposed pan-European bonds would be more diversified than German bunds, the current European standard. The move also would calm market volatility caused by bailouts of countries such as Greece and Ireland, and by concerns over debt loads of Spain and Italy. The size of the German bund market is about 2 trillion euros ($2.86 trillion).

The creation of eurozone bonds is fraught with roadblocks, however, as economically stronger nations would need to back the debts of weaker nations, which in turn would have to relinquish some sovereignty over their spending and debt levels.

NO CHOICE

Although moving toward greater fiscal integration in the eurozone will be a tough slog politically, it's either that or a disintegration of the union, bond managers said.

“It's becoming increasingly difficult [in the next 10 years] for the eurozone to remain in its current form without some kind of fiscal integration,” said Myles Bradshaw, senior vice president and portfolio manager in London for Pacific Investment Management Co. LLC.

“The market is going to force the eurozone to come up with a decision — is it going to be a full fiscal union or are we going to move down the disintegration route?” added Andrew Belshaw, head of investments in London for Western Asset Management Co.

Either way, the eurozone will be remade, experts said, and any partial breakup of the union would be a lot uglier than proposals to fix it. Central to those proposals are fiscal integration, which likely will include a move to eurozone bonds, and a relinquishing of some sovereign budgetary and debt-level oversight to centralized European authorities.

Also key will be guarding against moral hazard, or ensuring that highly indebted countries are encouraged to act with more fiscal responsibility.

For the complete article.
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