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The Fed goes long

REUTERS Blog - Sept. 16, 2011 - By MacroScope

As the U.S. economic recovery stumbles, most observers Federal Reserve policy expect the central bank next week to announce an initiative to replace shorter-term securities on its balance sheet with longer-term ones in a bid to drive longer-term interest rates lower.

Fed watchers call the maneuver Operation Twist after a like-named Cold War-era initiative in which the Fed bought longer term securities with a similar objective.

A twist action could stimulate mortgage refinancing and push investors to invest in corporate bonds, which could spur business borrowing, or in equities, which might help stocks recover, the Fed believes. By adjusting the composition of its portfolio rather than launching an aggressive new round of bond buying, also known as quantitative easing, the Fed would be taking a relatively modest easing step, but be acting all the same.

Ethan Harris, North American economist for Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, says policymakers have good reason to be gradual:

Right now they have decided to adopt a slow but steady easing policy. The big dramatic moves have been garnering so much negative attention that the normal confidence-building effect you get from monetary easing was cancelled out. And that’s very important at this stage.

But how exactly would the Fed, which has bought $2.3 trillion in longer-term securities in the last two and a half years, rebalance its massive portfolio?

The Fed in 2010 bought longer-term assets in 56 separate operations. Purchases were concentrated in the 2 to 10 year maturity range, although purchases included other securities. In 2009, 80 percent of the Fed’s purchases were of securities in the 2 to 10 year range. It also bought securities in the 10 to 30 year range, in the one to two year range, and inflation-indexed securities.

So a safe assumption is that in any Operation Twist remake, the Fed would shift the maturities of its purchases out a few years. But certain durations are unlikely candidates: since there is little private-sector borrowing at around 30-years, there would be little point to the Fed buying at or near that duration.

For the complete blog article.


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