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Treasury Bonds Drop Before Fed Announcement, Snap Three-Day Gain

Bloomberg Businessweek - Sept. 21, 2011 - By Paul Dobson and Wes Goodman

Treasury 30-year bonds fell for the first time in four days on speculation investors who bet the Federal Reserve would buy longer-maturity debt to boost the economy are poised to exit those trades for a profit.

Ten-year yields climbed from within seven basis points of a record low before the Fed releases its policy statement at the end of a two-day meeting today. The central bank is likely to say it will buy longer-term debt to spur investment in riskier assets in a move dubbed Operation Twist, said Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Tony Crescenzi. Treasuries fell 0.7 percent in November 2010 after the Fed last expanded its asset-purchase program, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Indexes show,

“For a couple of weeks, Operation Twist has been getting priced in,” said Peter Chatwell, a bond strategist at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank in London. “If and when it gets announced, a significant proportion of investors will take that trade off and that will push long-end yields higher.”

The yield on the 30-year bond climbed four basis points to 3.24 percent at 6:56 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The 3.75 percent security due in August 2041 fell 3/4, or $7.50 per $1,000 face amount, to 109 21/32.

The 10-year rate rose two basis points to 1.96 percent, after falling to 1.94 percent today, approaching the record low of 1.877 percent set Sept. 12.

The Fed will decide to replace short-term Treasuries in its $1.65 trillion portfolio with longer-maturity bonds, according to 71 percent of 42 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Operation Twist is among policy tools that Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has said the Fed could use as risks to the U.S. recovery increase.

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