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Bonds Rise as Growth Concern Fuels Fed Bets; Stocks Drift

Bloomberg - Sept. 23, 2010 - By Rita Nazareth and Raj Rajendran

Treasuries advanced as concern over slowing economic growth bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve will increase debt purchases to safeguard the economy. U.S. stocks recovered from an early slide as technology shares rallied, while crude oil erased losses.

Ten-year Treasury yields fell 3 basis points to 2.54 percent at 1 p.m. in New York, near a three-week low. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fluctuated near the 1,134 level after losing 1 percent in the first half hour. Irish 10- year yields rose to a record 418 basis points above German bunds after the nation’s economy unexpectedly shrank. The euro dropped from a five-month high versus the dollar.

An unexpected increase in U.S. jobless claims and weaker-than-forecast growth in Europe’s service and manufacturing industries caused traders to boost bets the Fed will undertake another round of bond purchase, or quantitative easing, to bolster growth. Technology shares buoyed U.S. equities after an analyst increased sales estimates for Apple Inc.’s iPad.

“It’s a mixed bag of economic data,” said David Goerz, who oversees $17 billion at Highmark Capital Management Inc. in San Francisco. “As investors wait for a more significant recovery, they tend to look at companies that have greater cash flows and more stable earnings, like technology. Tech is cheap. Apple has done a tremendous job coming out with products that consumers like.”

Treasuries, Bunds

Treasury 10-year yields were near the lowest since the beginning of the month and Germany’s slipped 6 basis points to 2.29 percent, the least since Sept. 9. Ireland’s 10- year yield surged 16 basis points to 6.45 percent.

Ireland’s gross domestic product shrank 1.2 percent in the second quarter from the first quarter and 1.8 percent from a year earlier, the country’s statistics office said today. Ireland auctioned 400 million euros ($533 million) of bills, less than the maximum sought by the debt agency, fueling concern that some European governments will struggle to fund budget deficits as economic growth weakens.

A gauge of Europe’s service and manufacturing industries weakened more than forecast this month, dropping to 53.8 from 56.2, Markit Economics said today.

“European sovereign debt issues are front and center again today and are weighing on markets,” Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York, said in a note to clients.

Jobless Claims, Home Sales

U.S. equities opened lower after applications for U.S. jobless benefits rose by 12,000 to 465,000 last week, signaling companies remain cautious about hiring.

U.S. stocks recovered from their lows of the day as data on home sales and leading economic indicators topped economists’ estimates.

Purchases of existing houses climbed 7.6 percent to a 4.13 million annual pace, the National Association of Realtors said. The 0.3 percent gain in the Conference Board’s gauge of the near-term prospects for the economy topped forecasts of 0.1 percent, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 56 economists.

The Dollar Index, a measure of the currency against six trading partners, added 0.1 percent to 79.939 to rebound from its lowest level since March. The euro dropped 0.5 percent to $1.3346 and 0.6 percent to 112.61 yen, while the Japanese currency increased 0.2 percent to 84.36 a dollar.

The New Zealand dollar slipped versus all 16 of its major peers, losing 1.2 percent against the yen, after the nation’s second-quarter economic growth trailed economists’ estimates. New Zealand’s gross domestic product increased 0.2 percent, less than a third of 0.7 percent pace forecast by economists.

European, Emerging Stocks

About three stocks fell for every two that gained on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. Banks were the biggest drag on the regional index, as Credit Suisse Group AG tumbled 3.2 percent and Banco Santander SA, Spain’s largest lender, lost 1.9 percent. U.K. money manager Henderson Group slumped 5 percent after Citigroup Inc. cut its recommendation on the stock.

Developing nations’ stocks advanced for a second day, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index maintaining a more- than-two-year high, amid speculation inflows of funds will accelerate amid faster growth in emerging nations.

For the complete article visit BusinessWeek.com
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