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Less Stress For Credit

Forbes.com - Sept. 23, 2009 - by Matthew Craft

A gauge of corporate bond trouble continues to fall.

Deeply indebted companies appear less likely to fail than at any point this year, judging by one bond-market metric. The percentage of distressed debt has reached a new low of 23.5%, according to a study by the rating agency Standard & Poor's. That barometer has dropped steadily since last December, when credit ran dry and more than 80% of all high-yield bonds appeared distressed.

Along with falling yields and new sales, it's another example of how corporate credit markets are returning to something like normal. The current distress ratio is not far from the 16% average over the past three decades. During the credit bubble three years ago, it neared 1%.

But with $102 billion in bonds from 193 companies still trading as if they're about to default, there are plenty of problems left. More than half of the high-yield bonds from insurance and finance companies are distressed, a sign that bond traders think some $24 billion in debt could go unpaid. These finance companies include Allied Capital Corp. ( ALD - news - people ), CapitalSource ( CSE - news - people ) and iStar Financial ( SFI - news - people ). Insurers include MGIC Investment Corp. ( MTG - news - people ), PMI Group ( PMI - news - people ) and Radian Group ( RDN - news - people ).

The average junk bond shed its distressed label in late July, when yields over comparable Treasurys fell below 10 percentage points – the standard measure of trouble. (See "Flight To Junk.") That spread has since dropped to 7.9 percentage points, and a typical junk bond now yields 10%.

S&P says this yield spread looks reasonable in a recession and expects it to hover around the current level as long as the economy stays sluggish. That could make survival difficult for companies needing to refinance bonds when they hit maturity. Companies with distressed debt will face $9 billion coming due in 2011 and a total of $68 billion from 2011 to 2015.

Given current yields, S&P says, they "might find themselves unable to borrow, or only able to borrow at a high cost." In other words, the need to raise cash will sink them if they haven’t already gone bankrupt. 

The rating agency's 12 month trailing default rate has climed to 10.3%, the biggest since August 2002 and well above the 4.4% average since 1981. S&P estimates it hitting 13.9% by next August.

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