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Treasury Five-Year Yield Falls to Lowest Level Since 2008 Before Auction

Bloomberg - Sept. 28, 2010 - By Daniel Kruger and Cordell Eddings

Treasuries rose, pushing five-year note yields to the lowest level in almost two years before today’s auction, as a drop in consumer confidence spurred bets that the Federal Reserve will increase debt purchases.

Bonds also advanced as an official said the Bank of England should step up quantitative easing and Standard & Poor’s said the price of bailing out nationalized lender Anglo Irish Bank Corp. could exceed $47 billion

“The engine is revving, but the car is going nowhere,” said Thomas L. di Galoma, head of U.S. rates trading in New York at Guggenheim Capital Markets LLC, a brokerage for institutional investors. “It’s the combination of QE and a possible QE2 in England. You’ve got some sovereign-debt problems, which is also sending a safe-haven bid into Treasuries.”

The five-year note yield dropped 4 basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 1.25 percent at 12:34 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 1.25 percent security maturing in August 2015 gained 6/32, or $1.88 per $1,000 face amount, to 100.

The yield touched 1.2335 percent, the lowest level since Dec. 18, 2008, which was two days after the Fed cut its target lending rate to zero to 0.25 percent. Yields on two-year notes dropped 2 basis points to 0.43 percent, compared with the record low of 0.41 percent reached on Sept. 22. Benchmark 10-year note yields slid 5 basis points to 2.48 percent.

U.S. Sentiment

The Conference Board’s confidence index declined more than forecast to 48.5 in September from a revised 53.2 in the prior month, figures from the New York-based private research group showed today. The median forecast of 75 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a decline to 52.1 from a previously reported 53.5.

The Fed announced on Sept. 21 it’s prepared to do more to help the economy, spurring speculation policy makers will add securities to the central bank’s holdings by increasing their Treasury purchases under a policy known as quantitative easing.

The central bank retained last week its stance from its Aug. 10 meeting of keeping its portfolio of securities stable at about $2 trillion to keep money from draining out of the financial system. The Fed bought $550 million of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities today, increasing the total amount of U.S. debt purchased since Aug. 17 to $34.612 billion.

Bonds were supported as Adam Posen, a Bank of England policy maker, said it should restart its asset-purchase program to prevent persistent slow economic growth, according to

‘Significant Gap’

“There remains a significant gap between what the economy could be producing at full employment and it currently produces,” Posen said in a speech today in Hull, England, today. “Monetary policy should continue to be aggressive about promoting recovery, and, subject to further debate, I think further easing should be undertaken.”

European countries are struggling to repair their finances and prevent a collapse of their banking systems after a sovereign-debt crisis that has roiled markets.

Investors are speculating the ballooning cost of rescuing Dublin-based Anglo Irish Bank Corp. will force the nation’s government to choose between fully repaying senior bondholders and tackling the region’s biggest budget deficit.

Credit-default swaps tied to Irish bonds jumped as much as 30.5 basis points to 521.5 after more than doubling in the past two months, and were at 496 basis points as of 1:40 p.m. in London, according to data provider CMA. Contracts on Anglo Irish rose 1.5 basis points to 937.5, implying a 56 percent probability of default within five years, after earlier climbing to an all-time high of 960.5.

Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan may introduce new measures to keep borrowing costs low as soon as its policy meeting next week should the yen become a bigger risk to the nation’s export- driven economy.

For the complete article visit Bloomberg.com
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