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Bond yields outweigh risks, say wealth managers

Investments - Oct. 7, 2011 - By Alice Ross

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Wealth managers are starting to buy investment grade corporate bonds again in the belief that their yields are fully compensating investors for the risks involved.
High-quality bonds from companies with cash on their balance sheets are now yielding significantly more than government bonds, which have seen their prices rise – and yields fall – as investors have sought safe havens in the recent market volatility. The decision by the Bank of England this week to introduce a fresh round of quantitative easing is expected to put further downward pressure on gilt yields.

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Some portfolio managers argue that it is now a good time to buy corporate bonds, with debt issued by defensive companies – such as GlaxoSmithKline, National Grid and Vodafone – yielding more than 4 per cent. Spreads – the difference between yields on corporate and government debt – are now 150-200 basis points, as many government bonds yield less than 2 per cent.

David Coombs, head of multi-asset investments at Rathbones, says he is buying corporate bonds for the first time in a year, having sold off all his exposure by August. He is now looking to build his portfolio’s bond allocation back up to 20 per cent, by moving out of cash, in the belief that yields are more than compensating investors for the risks involved.

He believes conditions in the bond market are now similar to those of 2008/2009, when private investors flooded into investment grade debt, believing the market was pricing in too much risk of default.

“What typically happens in a bear market is that the implied default rate is almost always higher than the realised rate,” he explains. “If we go into a 1929-style depression, all bets are off. But I think that’s unlikely – I think we’re going into a shallow recession and some of these companies have reasonable cash flow and will get through it.”

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