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5/10/2013Market Performance

S&P Indices
Municipal Bonds
S&P National Bond Index 3.00% 0.02
S&P California Bond Index 2.96% 0.02
S&P New York Bond Index 3.13% 0.02
S&P National 0-5 Year Municipal Bond Index 0.70% 0.01
S&P/BGCantor US Treasury Bond 400.09 -0.87
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Income Equities:
Preferred Stocks
S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index 848.03 -1.02
S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index (CAD) 636.26 5.15
S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index (TR) 1,701.05 -1.30
S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index (TR) (CAD) 1,276.26 10.89
REITs
S&P REIT Index 174.07 -0.65
S&P REIT Index (TR) 425.30 -1.56
MLPs
S&P MLP Index 2,469.58 14.93
S&P MLP Index (TR) 5,428.50 32.82
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Income Security Dividends

Security Amount Ex-Div Date
AESYY $0.28 IAD increased from 0.0303 to 0.2771   May 16
AQN PRA $0.28   Jun 12
BAM PFA $0.28   Jun 12
BAM PFB $0.26   Jun 12
BAM PFC $0.30 IAD decreased from 0.4119 to 0.3031   Jun 12
BAM PRG $0.24   Jul 11
BAM PRJ $0.34   Jun 12
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Why Corporate Bonds Do Not Lead Stocks

Minyanville - Oct. 10, 2011 - By Howard Simons

Stocks do not lead bonds and bonds do not lead stocks on any regular basis. Here's why.

As more than one person has discovered, often to their regret, the question, “Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?” has different answers before and after closing time. But any data analyst worthy of the name should be able to tell you lying eyes have no place in our hard-bitten world: While charts and graphs are indispensable for taking a first pass at investment relationships, you have to run the numbers – crunch them, as the saying goes – as your eyes are programmed to lie to you.

That last statement is correct. Your brain is hard-wired to patterns even when they do not exist. Toss out a set of random numbers or random events and someone will come up with a perfectly logical explanation for them. Worse, they will change their explanation at the drop of a hat; think of how many times someone will have 10 reasons for why the market opened as it did, got an intraday pie in the face for each, and then told you another ten reasons why the market was bound to have closed as it did.

Corporate Bonds and Stocks

Bond traders, especially for investment-grade issues, focus on spreads more than on prices are therefore view the market through the lens of option-adjusted spreads (or OAS) as opposed to the intermarket arbitrage that may exist between stocks and bonds. They combine this worldview with a few major life-changing events in the markets, such as the 2007-2008 crash and subsequent 2009 in both corporate bonds and stocks, note how OAS levels seemed to move in advance of stock prices and then conclude, as bond traders often do, they are much smarter than their stock-trading brethren, a group they regard as barely separate from the beasts in the field.

Ah, but the comparisons are off-base. Not only is the fundamental arbitrage relationship between stocks and corporate bonds the expected price/earnings ratio adjusted for dividend yield in the former and yield to maturity in the latter, we have to account for the increasing dollar value of each basis point lower in bond yields. Thus a proper measure is total return to total return.

For the complete article.
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