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U.S. to Sell $81 Billion in Long-Term Debt Next Week

Bloomberg - Nov. 4, 2009 - By Rebecca Christie

The U.S. Treasury Department said plans to sell a record $81 billion in its quarterly auctions of long-term debt next week and replaced its inflation-protected 20-year bond with a reintroduced 30-year security.

The Treasury said it will auction $40 billion in three-year notes on Nov. 9, $25 billion in 10-year notes Nov. 10 and $16 billion in 30-year bonds Nov. 12. The amounts were in line with the median forecast of $80 billion in a Bloomberg News survey of nine analysts.

The U.S. is headed for a second straight year of budget deficits exceeding $1 trillion. That means another year of government debt sales of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion, Treasury debt-management director Karthik Ramanathan said in minutes released today of a Nov. 3 meeting with bond market participants.

“Treasury debt managers will continue to remain aggressive in managing financing needs while minimizing potential market implications,” the Treasury said in a statement today in Washington.

The Treasury said issuance of its Treasury Inflation- Protected Securities will rise “gradually” and that it is considering more frequent TIPS auctions to improve liquidity. The department announced it would sell the 30-year TIPS bond in February, with a reopening in August, in a change from its previous TIPS bond auction schedule.

Debt Ceiling

The Treasury also said it expects to run up against the debt ceiling, which currently stands at $12.1 trillion, by mid- to late-December. The Treasury said it would keep Congress and investors apprised of debt-limit developments because “the government’s cash flows are volatile” and forecasting a precise date is difficult.

The Treasury said it “retains the flexibility” to increase its Supplemental Financing Program, which borrows on behalf of the Federal Reserve, if needed. The department shrank the program to $15 billion outstanding from $200 billion earlier this year to make it easier to stay below the debt limit.

“Today’s refunding helps cement the notion that larger and larger bonds will be needed to help finance our ever-growing debt needs,” said George Goncalves, chief fixed-income rates strategist at primary dealer Cantor Fitzgerald LP.

In a report to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, the Treasury’s borrowing advisory committee expressed concern that a weak economy could put further pressure on the Treasury’s financing needs. “It remains unclear to what extent the economy can expand without the aid of aggressive policy support,” the panel said in its report today.

Cash-Management Bills

The department said it’s moving the time of regular bill auctions to 11:30 a.m. Washington time from 1 p.m. The first bill auction on the new schedule will be Nov. 9.

To help manage short-term borrowing needs, the Treasury said it plans to sell cash-management bills in the current quarter, with some of them “longer dated” securities.

Next week’s auctions of bonds and notes will raise $42.5 billion in new cash, with the rest of the proceeds going to pay off maturing debt, the Treasury said.

This quarter’s total long-term debt sales exceeded the $75 billion in notes and bonds sold at the last refunding in August.

Earlier this week, the Treasury cut its estimate for government borrowing in the current quarter by 43 percent largely because of reductions in the program for helping the Fed manage its balance sheet.

Borrowing Needs

Borrowing will total a net $276 billion from October through December, compared with a previous estimate of $486 billion, and the department projects borrowing of $478 billion in the three months to March 31, it said in a Nov. 2 statement.

The Treasury is financing a budget deficit the Congressional Budget Office predicted in August will reach $1.38 trillion in 2010, even as the economy starts to recover. U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 3.5 percent annual pace in the July-to-September period, after falling 0.7 percent in the prior three months, Commerce Department figures showed last week.

In the Bloomberg News survey, the median estimate for next week’s auctions was $40 billion in three-year note sales, $24 billion in 10-year note sales and $16 billion in bonds.

“These figures underscore the large amount of borrowing the Treasury anticipates,” said Edward McKelvey, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and other Goldman analysts in a research note.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rebecca Christie in Washington at rchristie4@bloomberg.net


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