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Liquidity in Corporate Bond Market Drying Up

MORNINGSTAR - Nov. 21, 2011 - By Dave Sekera

An increasing number of exogenous factors are affecting available capital.

In last week's Bond Strategist, we wrote that if the credit market opened last Monday to the upside, we expected a relief rally to ensue; however, we warned that if the credit markets were unchanged or wider, it would indicate a lack of confidence in the Europeans' ability to stem further degradation in Europe and lead to further downside.

As it turns out, the credit market was weaker last Monday, the sovereign debt markets began to drop precipitously Tuesday, and the corporate credit market widened throughout the week. The Morningstar Corporate Bond Index widened more than 10 basis points to +241. While it appears that the European Central Bank intervention has halted the widening in Italian and Spanish yields for now, we think the overhang of systemic risk from Europe will push corporate credit spreads wider.

Liquidity in the corporate bond market has been drying up for several months and worsened last week. We heard stories of high-quality but off-the-run bonds hitting what dealers thought were throwaway bids and then immediately being offered cheaper on the follow once traders saw the print. This pattern is reminiscent of the type of trading we encountered in the 2008-09 credit crisis. Besides the typical year-end positioning when dealers reduce the size of their books to bolster their balance sheets, an increasing number of exogenous factors are affecting available capital. First, we have the daily barrage of headlines and continual overhang of systemic risk from Europe, which worsened last week. Second, layoffs on the sell side began in earnest over the past few weeks and many traders (the ones who have survived thus far) are no longer managing their books for profitability, but managing in order to keep their seats. Third, we suspect that Yankee banks have been reducing the size of their trading books and instead sending capital back to the parent banks in Europe. Lastly, while we think it will probably be a non-event, the congressional super committee's deadline to agree on a plan to cut the deficit is Wednesday.

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