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French Bonds, The Next Big Short?

Forbes - Nov. 27, 2011 - By Kenneth Rapoza

If the market was all of the same mind, French bonds would be the biggest short seller target in the months ahead. Yields would rise almost daily. Bond prices would start looking like 1990s Argentina. Whether or not the bears successfully take major bites out of French bonds next week remains to be seen, but for David Hinman and Ray Zucaro, co-managers at the $240 million SW Asset Management firm in Newport Beach, California, French assets are the next European asset to suffer.

France will join the rest of southern European government and corporate debt, inching into the realm of Third World status with its bond rating being cut. It’s prognosis negative in southern Europe and France is checking in to the emergency room.

When financial news media were focused on Greece and Italian sovereigns, Hinman was busy building his short position against Spanish bonds in the Forward Global Credit Long/Short fund (FGCRX) it runs for Forward Management, a $5.1 billion investment company in San Francisco. “We are moving down the line. Our favorite short in Europe right now is France. Italy is a tight call. We think there is more upside if you short France. Yields are going to go higher there,” Hinman says.

Short sellers agree to sell the bond at the current price expecting the bond to be worth less so they can buy it at a discount. Selling a French bond priced at 99 and then buying it at 80 is a nice 23% capital gain.

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