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The Long And Short of Treasury Bond Yields

Business Insider (The Daily Reckoning) - Nov. 29, 2010

“Prices are liars,” says Passport Capital’s investing ace, John Burbank.

But even liars sometimes tell the truth. Trying to discriminate between the liars and the truth-tellers is every investor’s most essential – and most difficult – task. Some bull markets are the real deal; others are simply bear markets that would fail a polygraph test.

Consider some of the bull markets of the moment... Stocks, gold, bonds, grains, oil, Chinese real estate and Sarah Palin’s popularity have all been in rally mode for months, if not years.

Which ones are lying? Your California editor has no definitive answers, but he has a few heartfelt guesses...

The truth-tellers: gold, grains and oil. The little-white-liars: stocks and Sarah Palin’s popularity. The pathological liars: Chinese real estate and bonds.

Jim Chanos, the insightful short-seller who has amassed a fortune by identifying – and betting against – fatally flawed companies like Enron and Tyco, considers the Chinese real estate market to be a disaster in the making. “It is Dubai times 1,000...or worse,” says Chanos. “Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses. And there’s no bigger credit excess than in China.”

By extension, Chanos believes Chinese stocks are better sold than bought. His arguments are persuasive.

But today’s edition of The Daily Reckoning will not address the validity or fallacy of the bull market in Chinese real estate. Instead, your editors will turn their skeptical gaze toward the bull market in bonds – and in particular, the bull market in Treasury bonds.

The US Treasury market has been rallying – more or less – for the last 30 years. Back in 1981, when then-Federal Reserve Chairman, Paul Volcker, was battling to contain hyperinflation, 30-year bond yields topped 15%. Twenty-seven years later, during the crisis of 2008, the 30-year yield plummeted to an all-time low of 2.55%. Over this identical timeframe, one-year T-bill yields plummeted from a high of 14.93% to a low of 0.19%. That is a bull market!

But a fascinating – and perhaps telling – divergence has developed between the 30-year yield and short-term Treasury yields: the 30-year yield is climbing, short-term yields are not...at least not very much. As a result the yield curve – i.e. the spread between long- and short-term rates – has reached its steepest level in three decades.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-long-and-short-of-treasury-bond-yields-2010-11#ixzz16ikTBKOX


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