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Time to sell bonds and gold

MSN.com - Dec. 8, 2010 - by Anthony Mirhaydari

Rising inflation expectations and strengthening economic fundamentals are causing investors to flee these popular assets.

In my last post I highlighted how investors are moving out of haven assets and into riskier securities. This comes as the economy revs up again, pushing inflation expectations higher.
 
This is forcing investors to up the scale of risk from U.S. Treasury bonds to investment-trade corporate bonds to junk bonds to large-cap stocks and eventually to small-cap stocks. Even gold, which is considered an inflation hedge, is coming under pressure as investors seek assets with both inflation protection and exposure to the economic recovery. Stocks offer that. Gold and bonds don't.
 
All of this has created an opportunity to profit from the decline of two of the most popular asset classes of the past two years: precious metals and bonds. Here's why.

First, it's worth noting this is not a whim of the market. A real, structural change is under way in how investors are viewing the economic future. And it started back in August.
 
The chart above shows a proxy for inflation expectations by taking the relative performance of the iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP), which tracks the performance of inflation-protected Treasury bonds, and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which tracks the performance of regular, non-inflation-protec?ted Treasury bonds. When the line rises, as it is doing now, investors price in higher inflation in the future by buying TIPS and selling regular Treasury bonds.
 
What's driving this? A combination of overly eager monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (see my column on the subject here) and strengthening economic fundamentals. If this continues, the chorus of criticism against the Fed's $600 billion "money-printing" operation will become louder.

For the complete article.
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