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5/10/2013Market Performance

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S&P National Bond Index 3.00% 0.02
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AESYY $0.28 IAD increased from 0.0303 to 0.2771   May 16
AQN PRA $0.28   Jun 12
BAM PFA $0.28   Jun 12
BAM PFB $0.26   Jun 12
BAM PFC $0.30 IAD decreased from 0.4119 to 0.3031   Jun 12
BAM PRG $0.24   Jul 11
BAM PRJ $0.34   Jun 12
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Long-Term Bond Bubble Bursting? What Will Retail Investors Do?

Seeking Alpha - Dec. 10, 2010 - by Lawrence Weinman

I have been writing for quite some time now that in the bond market it has been the dumb money buying long term treasury and corporate bonds and "smart money" corporations grabbing the cheap money by issuing record amounts of corporate bonds. The low long term rates were unsustainable. Wednesday's bond selloff attributed by some to the higher growth and larger deficits that may come out of the tax proposals, shows how violent the moves can be in long term bonds.

Retail investors have been flocking into bond funds for the last year or more. Supposedly this was in search of "safe investments" compared to the volatile stock market where they had suffered losses. In fact I would argue they weren't looking for safety but rather chasing returns of the most recently outperforming asset class.

These investors were simply riding the last wave of a massive decline in interest rates/rally in bonds. The positions were hardly "safe investments" particularly if they extended maturities in their bonds to avoid the paltry yields in the short maturities. As rates went down the longer duration bonds gained disproportionately compared to other bonds. I assume for some investors this was evidence their bond investments were "safer" than stocks.

But as these investors are probably just starting to realize, what goes up the most can go down the most. Those long duration bond holdings will suffer greatly should rates rise. Just the relatively modest increase in long term rates of late has been quite damaging to holders of long term bonds. Over the last 3 months TLT the 20 year+ treasury bond ETF has declined 8.3% while the short term treasury bond ETF SHY is unchanged. Surely all bonds are not equally "safe" investments.

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