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JPMorgan Boosts Outlook on CCC Corporate Bonds to Outperform

Bloomberg - Dec. 14, 2010 - By John Detrixhe

JPMorgan Chase & Co. says the lowest ranked tier of debt is poised to outperform higher-quality junk bonds in 2011, changing a recommendation made in May.

Investors should be “overweight” the lowest tier of high- yield company credit next year amid a default rate for bonds of 1.5 percent and as the U.S. grows 3.75 percent in the first six- months of 2011 and 3.25 percent during the second half, wrote New York-based JPMorgan’s Peter Acciavatti. The bank last week boosted its outlook for the U.S. economy.

“A portfolio tiered toward lower-rated/higher yielding issuers will likely outperform,” said Acciavatti, ranked the leading U.S. high-yield analyst for the past eight years by Institutional Investor magazine.

JPMorgan is the biggest underwriter of high-yield bonds this year as companies issued a record $282.5 billion of the securities, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Bond buyers should “underweight” the highest tier of speculative-grade securities, Acciavatti said. Junk, or high- yield bonds, are rated below Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service and lower than BBB- by Standard & Poor’s. The debt will return 9.8 percent next year, he said.

JPMorgan was overweight CCC debt at the beginning of 2010 and downgraded the tier in May, Acciavatti said in an e-mail.

The U.S. economy will grow 2.55 percent in 2011, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Speculative-grade bonds have returned 14.2 percent this year and yield 7.93 percent, or 554 basis points more than similar-maturity Treasuries, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. Yields will decline to 7.4 percent and spreads will narrow to 515 basis points next year, JPMorgan said. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

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