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Junk Bonds Gain as Economy Gathers Strength: New Issue Alert

Bloomberg - Dec. 20, 2010 - By Alexandra Harris

Returns on high-yield, high-risk debt are poised to outperform investment-grade securities for the final three months of 2010 amid rising confidence in the U.S. economy.

Junk bonds have gained 2.17 percent for the quarter on a total-return basis, compared with a 2.13 loss on investment- grade debt, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data.

“High yield is the gift that keeps on giving,” said Bonnie Baha, head of global developed credit group at DoubleLine Capital LP, which manages $6.8 billion in Los Angeles. Returns this month have been “pretty phenomenal, especially considering how good of a run the asset class has had over the last 18 months anyway.”

Speculative-grade debt is advancing as the New York-based Conference Board’s leading economic indicators, a gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months, rose 1.1 percent in November after gaining a revised 0.4 percent in the previous month. The U.S. economy grew 2.8 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, faster than the 2.5 percent estimate issued last month, according to the median forecast of 66 economists. The forecast comes ahead of a Commerce Department report due Dec. 22.

“The resumption of economic growth favors those who take credit risk,” said Peter Ehret, the Houston-based head of high- yield investments and a senior money manager at Invesco Ltd., which oversees $621 billion in assets. “The slow growth environment is pretty healthy for high-yield debt.”

Occidental, Bank of America

Occidental Petroleum Corp. and Bank of America Corp. led $15.5 billion of corporate bond sales in the U.S. this week, pushing monthly issuance past the December 2009 total when $58.1 billion sold. Occidental Petroleum, the biggest onshore crude producer in the continental U.S., sold $2.6 billion of notes in the largest offering in more than five weeks. Bank of America, the biggest U.S. lender, issued $1.5 billion of fixed-rate debt in its first such sale since August.

The extra yield investors demand to own speculative-grade bonds instead of Treasuries was unchanged last week after widening 9 basis points on Dec. 17, while absolute yields declined 2 basis points to 7.905 percent for the week, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Master II index. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped 9 basis points after Moody’s Investors Service lowered Ireland’s credit rating five levels to Baa1 from Aa2, three levels above junk status.

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