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5/10/2013Market Performance

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S&P National Bond Index 3.00% 0.02
S&P California Bond Index 2.96% 0.02
S&P New York Bond Index 3.13% 0.02
S&P National 0-5 Year Municipal Bond Index 0.70% 0.01
S&P/BGCantor US Treasury Bond 400.09 -0.87
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AESYY $0.28 IAD increased from 0.0303 to 0.2771   May 16
AQN PRA $0.28   Jun 12
BAM PFA $0.28   Jun 12
BAM PFB $0.26   Jun 12
BAM PFC $0.30 IAD decreased from 0.4119 to 0.3031   Jun 12
BAM PRG $0.24   Jul 11
BAM PRJ $0.34   Jun 12
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Enthusiasm for Financial Sector Quickly Wears Out

BOND STRATEGIST: The spread between the financial and industrial components of our corporate bond index recently returned to the peak levels

MORNINGSTAR - Dec. 20, 2011

Last week was a relatively quiet one. Only a few new issues were brought to market, investors finished cleaning up their books in preparation for year-end, and the news flow out of Europe died down.
The Federal Open Market Committee announcement was a non-event, but other economic metrics were generally positive, such as u.s. jobless claims, which fell to a new low for the year. Credit spreads, however, widened a couple of basis points, and the average spread in the Morningstar Corporate Bond Index rose to +255. The industrial sector was well bid and credit spreads were largely unchanged, but the financial sector widened out about 10 basis points as the enthusiasm from last week's EU summit died down. Most investors were encouraged by the European Union's agreement to instill greater fiscal discipline among the weaker European nations, but the lack of detail surrounding the agreement and enforcement measures curbed the enthusiasm. Illustrating this, the spread between the financial and industrial components of our corporate bond index returned to the peak levels. This widening spread indicates an increasing probability that the sovereign stress will negatively affect the financial system.

A number of indicators highlight the stress we are seeing in the short-term funding markets, but one metric we have not heard mentioned in a while is the TED spread. The TED spread is the difference between the three-month futures contract for Treasuries and the three-month contract for Eurodollars. As the spread widens, it indicates the market's preference for risk-free Treasury bills as opposed to undertaking the credit counterparty risk associated with Eurodollars. The TED spread has been consistently widening over the course of the year, and at 54 basis points, it's at levels we have not experienced since the 2008 credit crisis.

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