After the best year in more than decade and yields at record lows, gains in Treasurys may be limited in 2009, investors said.
Treasurys have returned 13.7%, the most since 1995, when they gained 17.3%, according to an index compiled by Merrill Lynch.
Those gains came as the economy dove off a cliff, U.S. equities plunged around 40% and investors fled all riskier assets for the relative safety of government debt. The Federal Reserve also helped, slashing rates to a range of 0% to 0.25% from 5.25% in September 2007. That was the lowest since the Fed started announcing a target for overnight lending rates between banks.
Two-year note yields
(UST2YR:
0.72, -0.03, -4.4%) reached 0.58% this week, according to FactSet, the lowest since the 1970s.
Ten-year note yields
(UST10Y:
2.17, -0.03, -1.4%) touched 2.08%, the lowest since the early 1960s.
Thirty-year bond yields
(UST30Y:
2.64, -0.01, -0.3%) also dipped under 3% for the first time on record, dropping to 2.6% in the wake of the Fed's Dec. 16 announcement.
"We've had a humungous rally in Treasurys," said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at Prudential Fixed Income Management, which oversees more than $200 billion of bonds. "The market is going to be vulnerable on a short-term basis."
Treasury investors are also wary of U.S. government's borrowing needs to fund its promised bailouts of banks, mortgage-finance giants and insurance companies. Estimates for U.S. debt sales, including short-term bills, already range as high as a record $2 trillion for the current fiscal year.
Increased issuance tends to be a negative for Treasurys because it makes the existing debt less attractive. What's more, when President-elect Barack Obama takes office, he is expected to lay out a multibillion-dollar program to encourage economic growth.
"There will be a heightened desire in a recession for stimulus spending," Tipp added. "Normally, you would expect that to push rates up."
Agencies and mortgages
The Fed and Treasury Department's combined efforts to push down mortgage rates to revive the moribund housing market is expected to attract investors to another type of government debt: agency bonds.
At the beginning of December, the Fed began buying from investors debt issued by Fannie, Freddie and the Federal Home Loan Banks to make it easier for those agencies to finance purchases of mortgage loans.
On Tuesday, the Fed said it "stands ready to expand its purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as conditions warrant."
The pledge sent credit spreads sharply lower on mortgage-related debt.
The agencies are now paying yields of about 1 percentage point more than Treasurys, down from 1.7 percentage points before the Fed said it would start buying that debt, according to a Merrill Lynch index. Those levels had roughly doubled in the prior six months.
That kind of support from the government, as well as the liquidity offered in the agency-debt market, make agency debt, as well as mortgage-backed securities packaged by the agencies, attractive to investors like Thornburg's Brady.
"Agency mortgages are tremendously interesting right now," he said. After putting Fannie and Freddie in conservatorship in early September, "the agencies are owned by the U.S. government right now and are clearly tools for the U.S. government" to make mortgage rates more favorable.